Developing an Integrated Conceptual Model of Salinization Processes for Southwestern Coastal Bangladesh

  • Zolezzi-López, José (Technische Universitat Darmstadt)
  • Muñoz-Vega, Edinsson (Technische Universitat Darmstadt)
  • Shamsudduha, Mohammad (University College London)
  • Schulz, Stephan (Technische Universitat Darmstadt)

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Salinization of water resources and soils is a critical global issue, particularly in low-lying coastal regions, where around 600 million people reside – a number expected to surpass 1 billion by 2050. Globally, salinization impacts hundreds of millions of people, particularly in riverine deltas which are especially vulnerable. High salinity of soil and water has been a major environmental concern for the coastal communities in Southwest Bangladesh. However, this problem is being intensified due to reduced river discharge, land subsidence, land-use changes, groundwater pumping as well as climate change impacts such as increased coastal storm surges and inundation during intensified cyclone events. Salinization of surface water, groundwater, and soils threatens agricultural productivity and freshwater availability, and livelihoods, making salinization a key driver of migration and underscoring the need for effective adaptation strategies. This study aims to integrate existing conceptual models of salinization processes in the coastal aquifers of southwestern coastal Bangladesh, providing an initial framework for developing numerical models that incorporate the uncertainties and challenges of these complex systems. Previous research show that areas receiving reduced river discharge, especially during dry season, and affected by upstream irrigation water withdrawals, are significantly impacted by salinization. This streamflow reduction, along with seasonality changes, accelerates the process on a large scale in these vulnerable areas. Locally, salinization of shallow aquifers is exacerbated by episodic tropical cyclones and associated storm surges, which leads to direct infiltration of saltwater contributing to increase salinity, particularly in polder areas. Deep aquifer host predominantly freshwater, with only minor influences from connate water trapped during historical transgression events. This suggests that shallow aquifers are highly vulnerable, while the deep aquifer system keeps important freshwater reserves. Those insights are critical for developing sustainable water management strategies in response to changing hydrological and climatic conditions, as well as increasing freshwater demands.